Some discouraging trends for Christianity and some encouraging trends for Adventism can be found in the latest edition of the American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS 2008). This study was released by the major news media a couple of weeks ago and I have had time to digest the full report; dig a little beneath the surface you saw in USA Today and on CNN.

The new data show that the most rapid growth in American religion is among the "Nones," or people who say they do not identify with any religion. This segment has nearly doubled in two decades, going from 8 percent in 1990 to 15 percent in 2008. Over the same period the percentage of Americans who identify themselves as Christian has declined from 86 percent to 76 percent. The only major segment of Christians that is growing is made up of those who are non-denominational. The mainline Protestant denominations have been in decline for some time, but even the Evangelicals are now in decline. For example, the percentage of Americans who say they are Baptists, has dropped from nearly one in five in 1990 to only 15 percent today.

The age data indicate that this trend will very likely continue. The Christian and Jewish groups all have an over-supply of older adults, while there is a definite tilt toward the youngest generations among the "Nones," new religious movements, Islam and Eastern religions. The majority of African Americans no longer identify themselves as Baptist and the percentage of Hispanics who say they are Catholic has declined significantly.

The study includes data from people who told interviewers that they are Seventh-day Adventists. Several interesting facts emerge and may seem contradictory at first. In the 1990 ARIS four-tenths of one percent of the respondents identified themselves as Adventists. In the 2001 ARIS this had dropped by a quarter to three-tenths of one percent, but in the latest study it is back up to four-tenths of one percent. These data are consistent with surveys going back to 1970 and this means that over four decades the Adventist Church in the U.S. has grown only sufficiently to keep pace with the population growth. It has made no headway in expanding its very small, marginal position. How marginalized the Adventist Church in America really is becomes apparent when compared with nearby nations such as Bermuda where Adventists make up five percent of the population and Belize where they are ten percent of the population. That means, proportionately, there are 25 times as many Adventists in Belize as in the U.S. 

In fact, these percentages are somewhat less than the official membership data from the General Conference Annual Statistical Report. (To get a U.S. total, one must take the North American Division total and subtract the membership of the Seventh-day Adventist Church in Canada and the Bermuda Conference.) When a projection is made from the percentages found in ARIS, the totals fall short of the official number. See the graph below. In other words, in 1990 ARIS found about five percent fewer Adventists than the membership roll of the Church. In 2001, that grew to nearly 18 less than the official count, but in 2008 it dropped back to a little more than six percent less than the Church data. The 1990 and 2008 numbers gaps are small enough to be explained by the fact that many children of church members become baptized members (in the Church totals) at 10 to 12 years of age, while ARIS interviewed only people who are 18 or older. 

ARIS also reports an increasing growth rate for self-identified Adventist adults. From the 1990 survey to the 2001 survey, the number of self-identified Adventists increased by eight percent, or less than one percent a year. That was less than half the official growth rate during that period, but it is substantially better than most Christian denominations reported in the same time frame. Between the 2001 and 2008 surveys, the number of self-identified Adventist adults in America increased by 30 percent or 4.3 percent per year, nearly double the growth in official membership and among the best growth rates for any denomination with more than a half million adherents. 

What do these trends mean for our movement? I would like to hear your views. I will have more to say later. I  have more information at www.montesahlin.com including how to get a copy of the full report (free).